tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5229364574561265729.post8825163216879348774..comments2023-05-26T06:11:32.356-07:00Comments on Kevin Carmony's Blog: It's the Delegates, Stupid!Kevin Carmonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18184610794401604177noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5229364574561265729.post-92061017832560911032008-02-01T09:39:00.000-08:002008-02-01T09:39:00.000-08:00Your article makes a good point but is bad in its ...Your article makes a good point but is bad in its math. <BR/><BR/>Aside from McCain's win in Florida's winner-take-all primary—thanks to his Pork-barrel Politics (I endorsed you, now you endorse me), Mitt's strategy is still being underestimated. Caucuses generally are attended be the more conservative Republicans, where Mitt wins best. <BR/><BR/>Caucuses, like those in Nevada, don’t decide the National delegates but just the county delegates. And most caucus states follow this general pattern. <BR/><BR/>These are not proportional representation states because by the time that state delegates are selected at county or congressional district conventions, as the case may be, there will not be many, if any, McCain supporters left. <BR/><BR/>This is because at the most local meeting (caucuses), if a clear majority supports one candidate, only those delegates will emerge to the district or county level. This prevents any other candidate from getting delegates and turns it basically into a winner-take-all state.<BR/><BR/>In Nevada, for example, the county conventions make it even more remote that any other candidate can win because they select delegates to the state convention at the county level. <BR/><BR/>Since Mitt already holds solid majorities in every county but one, virtually all the state delegates will be Mitt supporters. So at the state convention, these state delegates will overwhelmingly elect Nevada’s national delegates from Mitt supporters. <BR/><BR/>In other words, Mitt won all but 3 of Nevada’s delegates (the three being automatic delegates that go to party officials). If most caucus states follow some form of this process, it becomes very easy to see how Mitt could win it all. Ironically, the press has no clue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5229364574561265729.post-64836952088371676272008-01-16T18:48:00.000-08:002008-01-16T18:48:00.000-08:00Amen!Amen!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com