As some of you know, each year I make my predictions for who I think will win American Idol and in what order I think the contestants will be voted off. (Here were my predictions for 2009 and for 2008.) I set my predictions after the first performance night of the Top 12 (which was last night).
Here are my predictions for this year. As always, I'm not saying these are my PERSONAL favorites, but just how I think America will end up voting. (Siobhan, Lee and Didi are my personal favs.)
My predictions are:
CLICK TO ENLARGE - #1 is my predicted winner,
and #12 my prediction as first to be voted off.
Also, as with previous years, email me with YOU predictions or post them as a comment to this thread, and we'll use the same point system used in previous years to see who is winning at the end of each week and how we all did by the end of the season. (Don't worry if you miss sending me your predictions before they start voting people off tonight, as the point system takes into account when you jumped in with your predictions with a slight penalty for jumping in late.)
CLICK TO ENLARGE - #1 is my predicted winner,and #12 my prediction as first to be voted off.
To make it easy to email or post your predictions, here are the contestant's names in text form, so you can easily cut, paste and move them around in the order you predict.
Aaron Kelly
Andrew Garcia
Casey James
Crystal Bowersox
Didi Benami
Lacey Brown
Lee Dewyze
Katie Stevens
Michael Lynche
Paige Miles
Siobhan Magnus
Tim Urban
Kevin
SCORING POINT SYSTEM: Every week, you get 1 point for every number off you were for where someone would be voted off. For example, if you predict Casey will make it to #2, but he gets voted off #4, then you get 2 points. If you guess it smack on, you get no points. Like Golf, the LOWEST SCORE WINS.
PENALTY POINTS FOR LATE ENTRANTS: If your prediction doesn't come in before the first round (when there were 12 contestants), you are penalized 1 point. If you miss the first two rounds, you are penalized 3 points. If you miss the first three rounds, you are penalized 6 points. No more entries after the first three rounds and we are down to 9 contestants.
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40 comments:
Here is my pick!
Siobhan Magnus
Crystal Bowersox
Didi Benami
Casey James
Lee Dewyze
Andrew Garcia
Lacey Brown
Michael Lynche
Aaron Kelly
Paige Miles
Katie Stevens
Tim Urban
My picks, again in order that I think the good 'ol USA will vote. Luckily my personal favs are the top 3 in any order... funny how that works out ;-)
Siobhan Magnus
Lee Dewyze
Crystal Bowersox
Casey James
Didi Benami
Michael Lynche
Andrew Garcia
Aaron Kelly
Katie Stevens
Paige Miles
Tim Urban
Lacey Brown (already out)
Lacey was the first to be booted. So, scoring after Round 1:
Kevin C. - 2
Talechia - 5
Kevin L - 1
Kevin L (and any others who jump in later) will actually benefit from the scoring. Poor Talechia and I got stuck with not only the two points we lost for Lacey leaving before we predicted, but will get dinged with more points when Tim does finally leave. Talechia and I should have bowed out guessing before the first round and just taken our one penalty point. (I'll know better for setting up the scoring next year! =)
One thing that can often mess predictions up this early is http://votefortheworst.com I think Tim benefited from that this week. ;-)
It's not too late for others to join in. (As you can see, you start out with somewhat of an advantage actually.) If you haven't been following it, you can find their performances on iTunes and YouTube, then make your predictions.
Kevin
I did hear from a couple of you with only your prediction for the winner (not the entire list).
Anne Marie L likes Aaron Kelly and Bruce H predicts Crystal Bowersox
I think Aaron will be gone mid pack, and no doubt Crystal can sing, but I think the cool dreads and hippy-ness will be her undoing. (This IS American Idol, after all. =) Same reason I was correct in my prediction last year of Adam not winning. AI audiences tend to be more mainstream and tame. For me, Siobhan has just the right mixture of originality but without offending the sensibilities of the majority of the AI audience.
Time will tell. Game on! Come join in.
Kevin
Poor, cute little Lacey---I thought the same thing last night; I should have taken my 1 point penalty and waited to see the bottom 3!
My pics are:
1. Crystal Bowersox
2. Siobhan Magnus
3. Lee Dewyze
4. Didi Benami
5. Casey James
6. Michael Lynche
7. Aaron Kelly
8. Andrew Garcia
9. Paige Miles
10. Tim Urban
11. Katie Stevens
Kevin L.- 1 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 1 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 2
Talechia- 5
Hopefully I will do better than fifth place this time...
Welcome back again this year Spin!
Kevin
Have to admit this is FAR from a well-researched scientific hypothesis, but since I have nothing to lose (or gain), why not?!
1- Crystal Bowersox
2- Siobahn Magnus
3- Michael Lynche
4- Lee Dewyze
5- Didi Benami
6- Andrew Garcia
7- Casey James
8- Katie Stevens
9- Aaron Kelly
10- Tim Urban
11-Paige Miles
12- Lacey Brown (already gone - 1 penalty point)
Megan
Paige gets sent home!
The scores after round two:
Megan- 1 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin L.- 2 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 3 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 4
Talechia- 6
"Welcome back again this year Spin!"
It's good to be back!
Clearly the right strategy was to jump in late. You got a few benefits. You only lost one point, yet you missed that Tim would be the first to go (something pretty much everyone predicted). You also had the benefit of watching the second show, and seeing Paige completely fall off the horse. Oh well, we still have the rest of the season to go. Game on! =)
Kevin
Siobhan Magnus
Aaron Kelly
Crystal Bowersox
Lee Dewyze
Michael Lynche
Casey James
Andrew Garcia
Katie Stevens
Didi Benami
Tim Urban
I know I'm shotting myself in the foot by making Aaron higher than Crystal - I'm not a Crystal fan so I'm kind of forcing her up there!
Wow Karla, yes Aaron number two is a gutsy move. He is starting to shine though.
Welcome back this year!
Kevin
Didi gets sent home!
The scores after round three:
Karla- 4 (with 3 penalty points)
Megan- 6 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin L.- 7 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 9
Spinfusor- 9 (with 1 penalty point)
Talechia- 13
I figured VFTW would be able to get Tim through last week's elimination, but I didn't think he'd survive this long.
Karla was the only person who didn't put Didi in a high position (she put Didi in 9th. Three people put Didi in 5th, one in 4th, and one in 3rd).
Ouch! Yes, most of us didn't see that one coming.
I hear Tim has a new nickname, Teflon Tim. Ugh!
Kevin
Tim and his stupid smile are overstaying their welcome. They (well...us) had the right 3 in the bottom. I will add that Didi did a very respectable "Rhiannon" - that was a really decent performance to close out the show.
As for the performances last night, Lee and Casey and Crystal all stood out for me.
I agree with everything you said KLR. All I'd add to last nights performances was Siobhan was a disappointment. Hopefully that was just a fluke, one-off-night thing. But, it could end up being Lee and Crystal in the final two, which won't help my score any either! =)
Kevin
Teflon Tim is now the longest-running VFTW pick.
My favorite contestant this season is Lee Dewyze. I don't think he has any chance of winning, but I can see myself buying his album.
Uh oh, I fear Teflon Tim is going to survive yet another week. He didn't do too bad and I think Aaron dropped the ball last night. I was impressed with Casey and Katie, who I think performed their best yet. Siobhan was a little strange, but that's what I like about her I guess.
I think Aaron may be gone tonight.
Kevin
Crystal was my favorite last night.
I think it's going to be either Aaron or Andrew going home (I'm leaning more towards Andrew). We'll see in about forty minutes...
Michael was last and the judges saved him!
If the judges had let Michael go home, everyone would have received points (an average of three). Megan would have been hit the worst with six points.
Teflon Tim wasn't even in the bottom three!
I think Andrew Garcia, Siobhan Magnus (who was absolutely terrible; what happened to her?), and Tim Urban will be in the bottom three, with the first two going home. We all picked Siobhan would make it to at least second place, so if she does go home the points will even out. We'll see in fifty minutes...
AGAIN! Tim did well last night. I think Aaron and Andrew will be gone tonight.
Kevin
Andrew and Katie get sent home!
The scores after round eight:
Karla- 6 (with 3 penalty points)
Megan- 9 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin L.- 10 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 13 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 14
Talechia- 19
Crystal's performance was the only one I liked last night. Tim was improved, but I still hated it. He's now lasted as long as Sanjaya.
I'm really regretting Siobhan at the top..boo boo boo!!
Teflon Tim gets sent home!
The scores after round five:
Karla- 9 (with 3 penalty points)
Megan- 12 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin L.- 14 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 16 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 19
Talechia- 24
Seventh place isn't bad for someone who wasn't even supposed to be on the show.
We're now down to Aaron, Casey, Crystal, Lee, Michael, and Siobhan. Of the people left, only Aaron and Casey have been in the bottom three (twice and once, respectively). I think Aaron will be the next to go home.
You may be right about Aaron, but he's so cute he can totally be a country Justin Bieber ;-).
Thanks goodness the Teflon boy is gone. Aaron's next, then Mike...then maybe Casey. Unfortunately Siobhan is getting nailed each time for "not knowing what kind of artist" she wants to be. Freakin' sing!
I'm standing by my girl Siobhan. I STILL BELIEVE! She'll come on strong in the end. =)
Kevin C
Siobhan gets sent home!
The scores after round six:
Karla- 14 (with 3 penalty points)
Megan- 16 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin L.- 19 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 20 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 24
Talechia- 29
Everyone had Siobhan in second or first place, so no one switched spots in the leaderboard.
Siobhan was ROBBED by Simon's comment. What a travesty of voting. So sad.
Ouch!!!
I thought Siobhan's screams were absolutely awful! I'm glad she's gone :-P.
I thought the only good performance tonight was Mike's. Lee completely butchered "That's Life," which is one of the greatest songs of all time. I was apoplectic when the judges started pimping him.
I think Casey's going home tomorrow.
Aaron gets sent home!
The scores after round seven:
Karla- 17 (with 3 penalty points)
Megan- 20 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin L.- 22 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 22 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 27
Talechia- 33
I'm very surprised that Casey wasn't even in the bottom two.
I agree, don't quite get the Casey charm.
This is just NOT my year! =)
Kevin
Michael gets sent home!
The scores after round eight:
Karla- 18 (with 3 penalty points)
Megan- 21 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin L.- 24 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 24 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 29
Talechia- 37
I think Casey will be the next to go, with Lee coming in 2nd and Crystal winning.
Casey gets sent home!
The scores after round nine:
Karla- 21 (with 3 penalty points)
Kevin L.- 25 (with 1 penalty point)
Megan- 25 (with 1 penalty point)
Spinfusor- 26 (with 1 penalty point)
Kevin C.- 30
Talechia- 38
If Crystal wins, Karla will be in first place with a three-way tie for second between Megan, Kevin L., and me. If Lee wins, Karla takes first place with Megan and me tied for second.
The highest score last time was 24. The lowest score this time will be either 23 or 25.
Lee wins American Idol and Karla wins the prediction competition!
The final scores:
1. Karla- 25 (with 3 penalty points)
2. Kevin L.- 27 (with 1 penalty point)
3. Megan- 29 (with 1 penalty point)
3. Spinfusor- 29 (with 1 penalty point)
5. Kevin C.- 32
6. Talechia- 42
(I made a mistake in my last post by saying that I'd be tied for second if Lee won; I accidentally gave Kevin L. three extra points)
Last year's scores:
1. Whitney- 11 (with 1 penalty point)
2. Kevin Carmony- 12
2. Malinda- 12 (with 4 penalty points)
4. Karla- 13 (with 3 penalty points)
5. Spinfusor- 14
6. Talechia- 16
7. Chad O.- 18
8. Kevin L.- 24
I more than doubled my score from last time, but at least I moved up two places!
I knew I should have been a talent scout... ;-) ;-)
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