John Stossel's "You Can't Even Talk About It"

Another very good special by John Stossel, taking on politically sensitive topics. Stossel is one of the few journalists who will take on these taboo subjects.

PART 1: Should Pregnant women get paid as much as others?



PART 2: Should food be radiated?



PART 3: Should tax payers pay for other's who take dumb risks?



PART 4: Is killing and eating tigers the best way to save them?



PART 5: Should steroids be legal?



PART 6: Shouldn't America start doing LESS for the elderly?

World's Smallest Political Quiz

Click here to take the World's Smallest Political Quiz and see where you stand.

Here are my results, which might help people understand me and some of my views.


Kevin

John Stossel's "Politically Incorrect Guide to Politics"

John Stossel, one of the few level headed individuals in the media and a fellow Libertarian, has made yet another excellent 20/20 Special. John looks at the fallacies of big government.

I would HIGHLY encourage everyone to watch this entire program BEFORE voting. I'm glad at least someone from the mainstream media is debunking the concept that we should turn to government to solve all our problems.

For your viewing convenience, I've put the entire program below. (Note: If you'd prefer to watch this in a higher resolution directly from the ABC News website, go here.)

PART 1 - False promises from politicians. Spontaneous Order. Central planning and government vs self organization and business.


PART 2 - Housing crises. Regulation vs deregulation. Bailout. Necessity of business failures.


PART 3 - Rebuilding New Orleans. Government vs volunteers and the private sector. Government bureaucracy.


PART 4 - Campaign finance reform. Law of unintended consequences. Using regulation to prevent competition.


PART 5 - Farm subsidies. Job obsolescence. New Zealand eliminates farm subsidies.


PART 6 - People run America, not Government. People bring change, not politicians. Personal responsibility.


BONUS SECTION FROM PREVIOUS WEEK - Should some people not vote?


Kevin

I Have An Idea - TWO Competing Tax/Benefit Systems

Here's my idea...

We have TWO tax codes and TWO government benefit "packages." One would be set by the Democrats and on by the Republicans. Democrats can collect all the taxes they want from fellow Democrats, and Republicans from Republicans. Each party then has their own set of "perks."


For example, if you want "free," government-run health care, you can pay taxes to the Democrats and get that perk from them. If you would rather pay less in taxes and be responsible for your own health care insurance, then you could choose Republican. You get the idea.

Competition would then keep both parties on their toes. Everyone could decide which party gives you the most bang for your buck. High taxes and big perks? Or lower taxes and lower perks?

Of course, some functions would need to be agreed on and provided together from both parties (highways, national defense, etc.), but we'd have competition for all those fun little perks that politicians like to promise us (free health care, college education, welfare, etc.).

Of course, this plan would never work, at least not for the Democrats. Why? Because they need all those Republican entrepreneurs and business people to pay big taxes to pay for all their programs.

Obama's program is a simple three step plan:

1. Tax 5% of the population.
2. Give lots of perks to the other 95%.
3. Take all the credit, pat yourself on the back, and think YOU actually produced and accomplished something of worth.

No thanks.

Kevin

Joe Biden Doesn't Want to be Vice President

I'm glad Joe Biden will do us all a favor by suffering through being Vice President when he doesn't want to be.



Fib? Gaff? Confused?



Just a few days ago (jump to the middle of this clip)...



Kevin

The Very Heart and Soul of Conservatism is Libertarianism

"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism." ~ Ronald Reagan

Read more of Ronald Reagan's views on Libertarianism from this interview he did in 1975. At that time, Reagan used the term "libertarian-conservative" to describe his political philosophy. Reagan’s record, while generally conservative, was not particularly libertarian, but one’s administrative decisions, constrained as they are by existing laws, institutions, and politics, do not necessarily mirror one’s underlying philosophy (consider Mitt Romney when governing the very liberal state of Massachusetts). This interview gives an interesting glimpse into the real Ronald Reagan.

It's good to get to know where a candidate comes form, where their true roots lie and what their underlying philosophy is. Elections have a way of pulling candidates to the center as they pander for votes, so if you want to know what will actually drive a politician once they're in office, look to their core values and beliefs, and not just what they say months before an election.

Ronald Reagan was, in my opinion, a great President, because deep down he believed in the libertarian ideals of smaller government and more personal responsibility. Barack Obama is one hundred and eighty degrees from Ronald Reagan in that belief. Obama may be pulling to the center to win your vote, but if you look at what he has said and done in years prior, you'll see someone who can't wait to raise taxes and let government step in and start solving your problems.

It's hard to find many things government does right, so why would anyone want to turn to government to solve more of their problems? This would be like choosing the worst shooter on your basketball team to shoot the technical free throws. It makes no sense.

Another good quote from Ronald Reagan, "I don’t believe in a government that protects us from ourselves."

I couldn't agree more. If I need protecting from myself, I hope friends, family, church, neighbors, and community support groups will be there for me, not the Federal Government.

Kevin

Sunday Mornings Will Never Be The Same Without Tim Russert

What if, for the last 17 years, you met with the same friend every Sunday morning for an hour brunch, and then suddenly and unexpectedly, that friend passed away? That's how I felt when I heard the news about Tim Russert passing away on Friday.

In the last 17 years, it was a rare Sunday that I missed Meet the Press, and I will miss my Sunday morning get together with Tim Russert greatly. Think about it...how many friends have you spent an hour with every week for the past 17 years? I've spent more time with him than most of the people in my life, so even though I never met him in person, I certainly felt like I knew him, that he was a friend, and an important component to my life each week. Now he's gone.

Being a Libertarian, I appreciated how Tim Russert tended to be tough on all politicians, not in a mean spirited way, but simply by being prepared about his guests and topics, making it very difficult for a politician to talk out of the side of his or her mouth and skirt around an issue. Few commentators had the cache' and respect that Russert had, so he was in the unique position that he could be tough and still have guests come back time and time again. Politicians couldn't say, "Let's skip Meet the Press because I know Russert will ask the tough questions." They knew he'd ask the tough questions, but they couldn't take a pass on such a key forum.

Tim Russert was known and respected, not just as a journalist, but also as a good family man of character and principle. (It makes one contemplate what others will have to say about us when we pass on.) He often said his secret to life was simply to, "Work hard, laugh often and keep your honor." The world would certainly be a better place if we all lived by that simple creed, and from what I can tell, Tim Russert did.

To get a small sampling of why I liked Tim Russert so much, watch this montage of him asking Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, and others if they'll ever run for President...



There was never a good time for Tim Russert to leave us, but if he had to be taken, what better timing than Father's Day weekend? He wrote two wonderful books about his father and fatherhood in general. I have to confess that I never really thought about Father's Day much. It never seemed to have the punch of Mother's Day to me, but for the first time, with Tim Russert's passing, this day has some impact and meaning to me, and I suspect might from now on. I'm sure many of you know what I mean.

Here's a nice tribute to Tim Russert from Bruce Springsteen...



58 was far too young to lose such a great man. Sunday mornings may never be the same, but then, either will the lives of many of the people that Tim Russert touched.

Kevin

VP Predictions - From Tivo to YouTube

Who will John McCain choose for his Vice Presidential running mate? On Sunday, the McLaughlin Group made their predictions. (Click the video below to watch.)



Just as interesting, however, is how I created the above YouTube Video from my Tivo in just minutes.

1. My Tivo recored the McLaughlin Group (season pass).

2. I used Roxio's Toast 9 Titanium to move the program from my Tivo to my Mac, via my home network.

3. I used ScreenFlow to capture it from Tivo format and then saved it as a .mov file.

4. I uploaded the .mov file to YouTube.

Kevin

PS: If you want to see how well the McLaughlin Group has been in the past with their VP predictions, watch this episode when they made predictions for Bill Clinton's running mate for 1992. Did they guess Al Gore? =)

I'm Proud to Have Supported Mitt Romney

As many of you will know by now, Mitt Romney withdrew from the Republican race, in a classy, gracious speech before CPAC today. As usual, he showed his greatness, even when accepting defeat. (I just don't know how anyone could have watched his and McCain's speeches and NOT seen the huge difference.)

So, now what?

Huckabee

It will be interesting to see what Huckabee does now. He's in a bit of a bind, because he has said he'd fight to the convention, but now that Romney is out, what will he do? The blatantly obvious reason Huckabee remained in was to grope for a VP nod from McCain. Now, with Romney out, he'll only hurt both McCain and the party, with no chance of winning. If he withdraws, then it was clear he was in McCain's pocket all along. If he stays in, he hurts McCain (bye bye VP nod), hurts the party (bye bye Republicans giving him a shot next time), and embarrasses himself (something he's pretty good at =).

McCain

What will happen with McCain? Will the conservative wing of the Republican party embrace him? He has some real problems here. I think Obama is going to get the nomination from the Democrats, so McCain may not be able to count on the "Hillary will unite the party" strategy. For me, the only thing McCain could do to get my vote would be to pick Romney for his VP. I believe that would in fact unite the party. Problem is, McCain is a proud (and often liberal) man, and will likely pick a fellow moderate (he owes many of them favors), such as Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida (he owes him BIG TIME and could help him win FL).

Romney

It's been a wild ride, but I couldn't be more proud of whom I chose to back. I stood up and supported Romney when he was in single digits, and yet, he made it all the way to the final four. He remains, in my mind, the best choice to have helped our country, but like Reagan, he may have to wait four years.

He ran an impressive campaign, and left with class, choosing to do what was best for the party. I believe all of this will be remembered four years from now.

I predict Obama will go on to win the Presidency, screw everything up (especially the war and economy), and Romney will be back in four years to clean up the mess. It's what he does, he fixes things.

Kevin

Romney Still Leading in Votes, Wins and Money Raised Going Into Super Tuesday

Click Chart to Enlarge

As we get ready for "Super Tuesday," I remain amazed at how the mainstream media likes to discount Mitt Romney and seems anxious to crown John McCain.

For example, did you know...

• Mitt Romney won Maine yesterday with 52% of the vote?
  
• Mitt Romney has received the most total votes nationally in the Republican race?
• Mitt Romney has won the most states in the Republican race (4 of the 8, and coming in second in 3 of the others)?
• Mitt Romney is only 5 delegates behind John McCain?
• Mitt Romney has RAISED far and away the most money from Republican candidates?
• Mitt Romney is the ONLY Republican candidate to win over 50% of the vote in a state, and he's done it THREE times! (Maine, Nevada, and Wyoming)

Mitt Romney is the one republican candidate that has strong support in all 50 states.

I'd encourage you to read the last month or two of my blogs before casting your vote tomorrow. If you're a true Republican, you only have one choice, Mitt Romney.

See many of you tomorrow at the polls!

Kevin

(Source)

The Final Four

One of these four people will be your next President.

John Edwards and Rudy Guiliani have both pulled out of the race. Huckabee and Ron Paul are so far behind in votes and delegates, and so low in national polls, they're out for any voter who wants their vote to have a chance of changing the outcome. Bloomberg may enter, but as history has shown us, will be a very long shot. So, this means we now know that one of the above four people will be our next president.

If you're a registered Democrat, you will be voting between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Republicans will be choosing between Mitt Romney and John McCain.

The race has narrowed from around 20 candidates, to just these four. Those of you who have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the choices to be scaled down, now is the time to look at these remaining few candidates and make a choice.

Choose wisely.

As for me, I'm choosing the one with a proven track record of solving tough problems. He has successfully turned around struggling businesses, saved the 2002 Olympics, and put Massachusetts on the right course as Governor. He's the only candidate to have succeeded in both the private and public sectors. He understands the economy better than the others. He's the only candidate who has said he'll get us out of Iraq, but with victory. (Clinton and Barack will pull out immediately in surrender, and McCain will keep us there indefinitely.) He's the candidate with the right views on immigration, taxes and health care. He's a true American that understands the importance of strong family values.

The choice of these four is easy. Mitt Romney.

Kevin

Who's Right on Pulling out of Iraq? Hillary Clinton, John McCain or Mitt Romney?

Want some help in deciding who you should support for President in 2008? Take this simple, one-question test to help you decide:

Which of the following three positions would YOU support with the war in Iraq?

Position 1: Surrender and set an immediate timetable for withdraw from Iraq and announce the withdrawal timetable publicly?

Position 2: Stay in Iraq indefinitely, even 100 years if that's what it takes. Set no goals or benchmarks, even privately, with the Iraqi government. Win at all costs and give the Iraqi government a blank check and unlimited time to take over from US troops, without timetables, benchmarks or goals.

Position 3: Never surrender, but keep strong pressure on the new Iraqi government so the US troops can gradually withdraw. Have a plan, goals and benchmarks for withdrawal which are discussed in private with the Iraqi government. Withdrawal gradually, not in surrender, but as appropriate with a successful and timely handoff to a new and stable Iraqi government.

OK, have your answer?

If you like Position 1, then you should consider voting for any of the democratic candidates or Ron Paul.

If you like Position 2, you should consider voting for John McCain.

If you like Position 3, you should consider voting for Mitt Romney.

John McCain is feeling desperate and the pressure is getting to him. If you've followed his career, you know what McCain does when things don't go his way. He gets mean, loses his cool and starts distorting the truth.

McCain knows that the American people, particularly those in Florida on Tuesday, are more concerned about the economy than any other issue right now. That's bad news for McCain, who admits he is weak on economic issues. He started by distorting his OWN record in the debate this week in Florida when he plead ignorance when Tim Russert brought up McCain's own statements he made just last month about his lack of knowledge on the economy.

Now, in a desperate effort to bring the discussion away from the economy, John McCain is completely distorting statements Mitt Romney made on Good Morning America back in March. Romney (so much for McCain's "straight talk express"). Romney, who has always supported Position 3 above, is having these statements taken out of context by John McCain to suggest he supports Position 1. Nonsense.

For those of you who don't like reading only the headlines or statements taken out of context, here is the entire exchange on Good Morning America, and you judge for yourself:

Robin Roberts: “Iraq. John McCain is there in Baghdad right now. You have also been very vocal in supporting the President in the troop surge. Yet the American public has lost faith in this war. Do you believe there should be a timetable in withdrawing the troops?”

Mitt Romney: “Well, there's no question but that the President and, and Prime Minister al Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about. But those shouldn't be for public pronouncement. You don't want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you're going to be gone. You want to have a series of things you want to see accomplished in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and the Iraqi police and the leadership of the Iraqi government. ”

Robin Roberts: “So private? You wouldn't do it publicly. Because the President has said, flat out, that he will veto anything the Congress passes about a timetable for troop, troop withdrawals. As President would you do the same?”

Mitt Romney: “Well, of course. Could you imagine the setting where, where during the Second World War we said to the Germans, ‘Gee, if we haven't reached the Rhine by this date, we’ll go home. Or if we haven’t gotten this accomplished, we’ll, we’ll pick up and leave.’ You don’t publish that to your enemy or they simply lie in wait until that time. So, of course you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don't do that with the, with the opposition.”

It's very clear in reading this that Romney takes Position 3. Romney is saying there SHOULD be a plan, discussions, timetables, goals, benchmarks, etc., discussed in private with the Iraqi government, so that we can start to pull our troops out. This is different than John McCain who has said he's prepared to stay in Iraq for 100 years, and blindly let the Iraqi government have a blank check to take their time without any goals (which is what he must believe if he takes issue with Romney's comments on Good Morning America).

Last week, the Clintons knowingly took comments made by Barack Obama about Ronald Reagan out of context. They intentionally twisted around what Obama was saying, even running radio spots taking his comments out of context, only to later pull the advertising when it was obvious what they were doing. John McCain is doing the exact same thing here. He is taking statements by Mitt Romney out of context, knowing full well Mitt Romney has never supported a public withdrawal timetable. Time magazine has said that there is no evidence of what McCain is claiming.

Just like this backfired on the Clintons, making them just look dishonest and deceitful, this will also backfire on McCain, in three ways: 1) It shows that McCain is getting desperate and resorting to slimy, dirty, political tricks, 2) its punctuates the fact that McCain is weak on economics and will avoid that topic at all costs, and 3) highlights his Position 2 on the war, when most Republicans like Position 3.

So, even if John McCain is successful in temporarily pulling people's attention away from the economy, he'll just end up spotlighting his irresponsible, ill-planned, and warmongering stance on the war in Iraq.

Kevin

PS: John McCain will be on Meet the Press tomorrow. Hopefully Tim Russert won't let McCain get away with how he's trying to distort Romney's record. It's pretty hard to get spin past Russert.

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John McCain's Flip Floppin

What are people saying about Mitt Romney from the FL debate?

If you missed the Republican Primary Debate last night in Florida, here's what other's are saying about it. With very few exceptions, most felt Romney had the strongest showing. The polls were already starting to move to show Romney leading in Florida. His strong performance in this last debate before the polls open in FL on Tuesday, should put him over the top.

Kevin


MSNBC's Chris Matthews: "I didn't say that [Romney] won yet, but I'll say it now. I thought Romney came out of the shoot tonight with that first answer on the stimulus package which showed a great deal of confidence and sophistication. It's what everybody wants now. They want to believe there's somebody smarter than we are, and can figure out this global crisis."

MSNBC's Joe Scarborough: "The first 30 minutes - it was about the economy. I thought Mitt Romney absolutely dominated that segment of it." "I think conservatives probably related to Mitt Romney, talking about tax cuts, talking about being a governor, talking about what he did in the private sector for all those years. On the economic part of this debate, I don't think there is any doubt that this was Mitt Romney's best performance."

MSNBC's Pat Buchanan: "I got to say that I think clearly Mitt Romney dominated tonight. His performance was flawless. He looked presidential." "I think Romney clearly won tonight." "He looked terrific. He got off the best two lines of the night." "I think he was crisp and strong." "If Romney is in the lead tonight and people are looking at this, he looks to me like a man, quite frankly that can beat Hillary Rodham Clinton and can be president of the United States."

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "Mitt Romney should send a thank you card to Tim Russert and Brian Williams. They threw hard balls at the former Massachusetts governor and he hit them all, many out of the park. Romney's allocation of time had to be disproportionate, but that was the Williams/Russert choice, and Romney made the most of it." "Democrats watching tonight have to be very worried that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee."


National Review's Rich Lowry: "Romney has seemed authoritative – confident and on his game..." "'We're the Party of Change' ... Home-run answer from Romney. It was drawn from his standard lines on the stump, but a terrific message, convincingly delivered." "Romney is dominating the last half-an-hour."

MSNBC'S Chuck Todd: "Romney looks good and sounds confident tonight."

Time's Mark Halperin: "... Romney came out strong, unapologetic and on message." "[Romney] settled comfortably into the 'looks and sounds like a president' zone that is one of his chief assets." "[Romney] Seemed to anticipate an eventual one-on-one contest with McCain, and displayed the confidence of a man who feels certain he has a spot in the finals. Bottom line: Benefited more than anyone else from the oddly low-key nature of a high-stakes."

Michelle Malkin: "Romney's being treated like the front-runner and he's acting like it." "Romney just out-McCained McCain on the war." "Excellent Romney answer on Iraq. Strong, tough, focused on the surrendercrats. He takes on Dems for their withdrawalmania cites debate in SC when Hillary refused to say she wanted to win and recycled Code Pink line." "Romney excoriates Dems and says 'how dare they' take credit for surge."

ABC News' Rick Klein: "Romney gets an initial question on the economy -- this is tailor made for him. He sounds authoritative and in control on this subject."

ABC News' Jake Tapper: "Romney, who is in a dead heat with McCain for first place in some recent polls here in Florida, had perhaps the best night, presenting a polished and confident demeanor."





MSNBC's Text Message voting after the debate asking who won, came in last night at:

Romney 41%
*Paul 40%
Huckabee 8%
McCain 7%
Rudy 4%

*NOTE: Ron Paul ALWAYS wins any text message or Internet poll, regardless of how good or bad he performs. His rabid supporters think holding up signs and voting for him in Internet polls will somehow translate into votes. It never has for him, and it never will. (You can read my blog on Ron Paul from back in November here.) Anytime I see a Text Message or Internet poll, I automatically toss out Ron Paul, but there can be some insight into how well the other candidates are doing. The fact that ANYONE even came close to Ron Paul in a text message poll is news. =)

MSNBC's Pat Buchanan


MSNBC's Joe Scarborough:


How'd McCain do?

Mitt Romney Leads in Delegates, Wins, Votes & Money Raised

As I've pointed out in previous blogs, delegates are what matter in the Republican primaries. We now have six states who have cast their votes, so I thought it would be helpful to create a chart that shows where each candidate stands on delegates, states won, total votes, and money raised.

Here is what things look like after the first six states:

Click Image to Enlarge

At some point, the mainstream media will have no choice but to start giving the true "score" for the race, and that score is the number of delegates. Could you imagine listening to a basketball game, and all the announcer talked about was the number of shots, assists, rebounds, etc. each team had, and NEVER told you the actual SCORE? Well, that's what the media has been doing. They talk about each state (except for Wyoming, which they have completely ignored, and Nevada which they touted as incredibly important for the Democrat's race but immaterial for the Republican's), but they never give the game's score. Well, if they won't, I will. Here it is, and as you can see, Romney is leading with nearly twice the delegates as his closest rival, and has more wins, votes and money raised than all the candidates.

In my opinion, Huckabee and Thompson are now out, and unless Giuliani can pull out a win in Florida, it's a two-man race, Romney vs McCain. As we saw in Michigan, in a face-off between these two candidates, true Republicans have shown they prefer Romney over McCain.

Romney has a solid lead heading into Florida, and is the one candidate that has shown he can be competitive in all 50 states.

Kevin

PS: I'd encourage you to click the above image, then right click on the enlarged image, save it to your local drive, and then email it to all your friends. Pass it around, and have them pass it around. Everyone, especially people living in Florida, need to know what the score currently is, since the mainstream media is doing a poor job of telling them.

It's the Delegates, Stupid!

In my blog yesterday, I pointed out how Mitt Romney leads among all Republican Presidential candidates for total votes, delegates, states won, and money raised. When I wrote my blog, however, it was before all the votes had fully been counted and the delegate estimates were still in flux. At that time, I reported that Romeny had won 12 delegates and McCain 9. However, now that the dust has settled and the estimates more firmed up, it turns out that Romney's blow out win in Michigan is a lot more sizable. As it stands now, Romney won 24 delegates, McCain only won 5, and Huckabee 1. (I went back and updated the count in yesterday's blog.)

Given this new data, here is the delegate count currently:

This is HUGE and gives Romney a massive lead in delegates. Romney now has more delegates than all the other candidates combined!

Let's see what this means for Romney, going into Super Tuesday, EVEN IF HE LOSES Nevada, South Carolina, and/or Florida.

Let's look at the current polls (most of which have not yet taken into account any "bump" from Romney's MI win), as well as the delegates up for grab in these three states before Super Tuesday:

Nevada - 34 delegates

If you take the last four polls as of today, average them together, it looks like this:

Romney - 32%, Giuliani - 25%, Huckabee - 23%, McCain - 20%

If we allocate delegates accordingly: Romney gets 11, Giuliani gets 9, Huckabee gets 8, and McCain gets 7.

South Carolina - 24 delegates

Using a similar approach for South Carolina, it breaks down like this: McCain gets 8, Huckabee gets 7, Romney gets 5, and Thompson gets 3.

Florida - 57 (winner takes all)

Florida is a winner-take-all state, so, let's assume the current leader there, Giuliani, wins and gets all 57 delegates.

If we assume the above, the total delegate count would look like this, after taking where we are today and adding these three states:

Romney - 70
Giuliani - 67
Huckabee - 37
McCain - 30
Thompson - 9
Paul - 2

Now, these assumptions will certainly be in flux. As I mentioned, most of the poll numbers I used were taken before Romney's strong win in Michigan. It's likely he'll do much better in all three of these sates. (I predict Romney will win Nevada and come in first or second in SC and FL.) Also, many of the other candidates are running low on funds and some could certainly bow out along the way, which would shift votes and effect things. However, under ANY scenario, come Super Tuesday, Romney will have a bucket full of delegates and a pocket full of funds. If we go into Super Tuesday with only two or three candidates remaining, it's quite clear Romney will be one of them.

My message to the mainstream media: It's the delegates, stupid!

Kevin

Who's on First? Mitt Romney

With the first four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Michigan) now having had their Republican primary and caucus elections, if you haven't been keeping score, here is a quick run down to catch you up...

Which candidate has won the most states? Mitt Romney

Romney has won two (Michigan and Wyoming), Huckabee one (Iowa), and McCain one (New Hampshire).

Which candidate has won the biggest state? Mitt Romney

Michigan cast around 850,000 votes. Iowa and New Hampshire COMBINED only cast less than half that amount, around 350,000.

Which candidate has gotten the most votes for all the states combined? Mitt Romney

37% - Romney - 450,740
30% - McCain - 367,126
17% - Huckabee - 210,402
7% - Paul - 85,807
4% - Thompson - 51,536
4% - Giuliani - 49,772

Which candidate has won the most delegates? Mitt Romney

Which candidate has won more delegates than ALL THE OTHER CANDIDATES COMBINED? Mitt Romney

Romney has 52, the other candidates have 47 combined.

Which candidate has raised the most money? Mitt Romney

Rommey - $62,829,069
Giuliani - $47,253,521
McCain - $32,124,785
Thompson - $12,828,111
Paul - $8,268,453
Huckabee - $2,345,798

Which candidate has the most money to continue on to future states? Mitt Romney

In addition to the impressive amount raised, Romney also has a sizable personal wealth he can call upon to get his message out in upcoming states. Many of the other candidates are low on funds.

(Source)

Wyoming - Can't Get No Respect

It's interesting what states are anointed by the press as "important." I don't know how many times I've heard the talking heads from the press say, "But Romney needs to WIN something!" If I were a Wyomian, I'd be starting to have an identity crisis.

News Flash to the Press: Romney WON Wyoming back on January 5th. Mitt Romney won more delegates by winning Wyoming (8 delegates) than John McCain did by winning New Hampshire (7 delegates).

I fail to see what makes Iowa and New Hampshire so much more qualified to be the barometer of politics and covered by the national media, while Wyoming is completely ignored.

Kevin

What happened in New Hampshire?

The most interesting turn of events in NH was the Hillary win. All the polls before the primary had Obama winning and his "change" message seemed like it was going to swing Obama all the way.

But, here's what I think may have happened....

40% of the voters in NH are registered as independent (undeclared). These voters can vote in either the Republican or Democrat primary. I think these voters listened to all the polls on Tuesday and assumed the Republican race would be the close one and that they would be wasting their vote on the Democrat side, so they decided to vote for McCain instead of Obama. This was good for McCain and Hillary, but bad for Obama and Romney. It shouldn't have been a surprise, however, that McCain did well among independents, because the very things that upsets Republicans about McCain, are the things that make independents feel that McCain is an "independent" type of politician.

McCain has upset Republicans on several occasions, including McCain-Feingold, his vote against the Bush tax cuts, his support for the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, and so on. This has made him unpopular with many Republicans, but popular with independents. (If you're not familiar with McCain, I'd encourage you to read about him on Wikipedia.)

Where does this leave Romney? Here are some things to consider:

• Romney won Wyoming, and came in second in Iowa and New Hampshire.
• McCain had an edge in NH, because he left Iowa to go work on NH. However, while McCain only won 7 delegates in NH, because Romney choose to run in Iowa, Romney won 12 delegates in Iowa by taking second place! (NH only has 12 delegate slots, after having been penalized for moving their primary up.)
  
• Romney has more delegates than any other Republican candidate. (See image below.)
  
• In the first three state races, Romney has...
  - beaten McCain 2 out of 3 times
  - beaten Huckabee 2 out of 3 times
  - beaten Rudy 3 out of 3 times
  - beaten Thompson 3 out of 3 times
  - beaten Ron Paul and all others 3 out of 3 times.
• Romney is the only candidate who has beaten EVERY OTHER candidate AT LEAST TWO out of THREE times.
  
• Romney raised more money than any of the Republican candidates and has the resources to continue fighting.

Of course it's great to win states, but it's delegates that matter. The candidate to get 1,191 delegates gets the nomination. There are winner-take-all states, so it's important that Romney start to see more momentum, but there isn't momentum for anyone else yet either, so it's still wide open.

Thompson could actually do well in South Carolina. This means, by the time we get to Florida, there could still be FIVE contenders: Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, and Rudy.

Lots can happen between now and then. For example, the stock market is taking a beating. People should be looking for someone who understands economic growth to help our economy, that's Romney. How the rest of the country will respond to the bible-thumping tv-evangelistic Huckabee, or the 71-year-old, life-time politician, McCain, has yet to be determined.

Kevin

PS: If you watched McCain's victory speech, it was quite unimpressive. HE READ IT!!! (And even at that, he stumbled at times.) Go look at the inpromptued remarks by Romney after the results were announced, and then go look at McCain's victory speech. If Obama gets the nomination from the Democrats, he'll eat McCain's lunch on the stump. Note to McCain: Don't READ your victory speech!!! Anyone can READ a well-written speech by who-knows-who, but to win on the stump in the national election, you better know how to inspire people, not just read to them.

Did Romney Win Immunity Sunday Night?

In my blog yesterday I compared the primary election process to the reality TV show Survivor. I mentioned how Romney really needed to "win immunity" to ward off the attack from the Rudy/McCain/Huckabee alliance "voting him off." Romney's best chance to do this was in the debate Sunday night.

Did he do it? According to the Fox focus group, he very well may have done just that. Take a look...

Focus Group: Romney Wins Debate
Sunday, Jan 06, 2008 09:43 PM EDT


Luntz: Romney Hit A Home Run Tonight
Sunday, Jan 06, 2008 10:14 PM EDT


Focus Group: Romney Can Beat Obama
Sunday, Jan 06, 2008 09:54 PM EDT


Other comments about the debate:

Fox News' Chris Wallace: "As far as Mitt Romney, I thought it was the best he has done in any of the debates I have seen. Not only the performance and the demeanor which was quite commanding." (Fox News' "Live," 1/6/08)

ABC News' Rick Klein: "I do think, for late-breaking voters, Romney comes across well because he's in command of his facts and looks very, very presidential." (Rick Klein, "Live Blogging During GOP Forum," ABC News' Political Radar Blog, http://blogs.abcnews.com/, Posted 1/6/08)

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Mitt Romney, in my view, was the winner. His answers were crisp, knowledgeable, and poised. He was solid on each substantive issue and effective in defending his so-called attack ads. My guess is that he's cemented himself as the choice of Republicans in New Hampshire...." (Paul Mirengoff, "My Impressions Of Tonight's Debate," Power Line Blog, http://www.powerlineblog.com/, Posted 1/6/08)

Time Magazine's Joe Klein: "Mitt Romney – even though under assault constantly in Saturday night's debate – has had two of his best debate performances yet." (Joe Klein, " McCain's Lost Weekend," Time's The Swampland Blog, http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/, Posted 1/6/08)

RedState's Erick Erickson: "As for the actual candidates. I think Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney did the best tonight. Mitt seemed even paced all night." (Erick Erickson, "Winners And Losers Tonight," RedState Blog, http://www.redstate.com/, Posted 1/6/08)

National Review's Rich Lowry: "[Romney] spoke forcefully and put the case for himself as the reformist businessman in the best possible light. I think he basically dominated the first hour, and fell off a tab after that, but otherwise was truly excellent. His best performance yet, in very high pressure circumstances. His answers on taxes, job creation, and immigration were top notch." (Rich Lowry, "Romney & McCain In Fine Form," National Review's The Corner Blog, http://corner.nationalreview.com/, Posted 1/6/08)

The American Spectator's Quin Hillyer: "Romney does a great job explaining the characteristics needed in a president (and why executive leadership trumps Senate leadership and why executive leadership is more important than specific foreign policy expertise)." (Quin Hillyer, "After Commercial," The American Spectator's Blog, http://www.spectator.org/, Posted 1/6/08)

National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "Romney was gracious on-point tonight. Good for him. This nomination fight isn't close to over. Thankfully." (Kathryn Jean Lopez, "A Good Night," National Review's The Corner Blog, corner.nationalreview.com, Posted 1/6/08)

Conservative Blogger's William Smith: "Mitt Romney had the performance of the night. He was prepared. He was solid. He defended his record and drew specific contrast between himself and his opponents. Romney pulled off the kind of performance that should only add to his lead." (William Smith, "Thoughts On Tonight's FOX News Republican Forum..." Conservative Blogger, http://www.conservativeblogger.com/, Posted 1/6/08)

The American Spectator's Jennifer Rubin: "Romney was very solid and effective on defending Bush tax cuts." (Jennifer Rubin, "Taxes," The American Spectator's Blog, www.spectator.org, Posted 1/6/08)

The New York Times' Michael Cooper: "It was the Republican Debate, Episode II: Mitt Romney Strikes Back." (Michael Cooper, "G.O.P. Rematch: Romney Fires First Round," The New York Times The Caucus, http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com, Posted 1/6/08)

- Cooper: "...Mr. Romney came out swinging Sunday night during the opening minutes of a Republican presidential forum that was broadcast on Fox News." (Michael Cooper, "G.O.P. Rematch: Romney Fires First Round," The New York Times The Caucus, http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com, Posted 1/6/08)

National Review's Jim Geraghty: "Romney, responding to Huckabee after one of his populist riffs: 'You're not going to help the wage earner in America by attacking the wage payer.' Boom. One of his best lines of the night. Is that an old Reagan line?" (Jim Geraghty, "Are We Watching Romney Get Up Off the Mat?" National Review's The Campaign Spot, http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com, Posted 1/6/08)

Hot Air Blog's Bryan Preston: "So far they've gone two rounds against each other directly. ... I'd score both rounds for Romney, with a solid knock down in the second one." (Bryan, "Videos: Mitt And Mike Go A Couple Of Rounds," Hot Air Blog, http://hotair.com/, Posted 1/6/07)

Politico's Jonathan Martin: "A prepared Mitt is out of the gates strong on his message, dinging McCain and Huck on taxes. And he even showed that he, too, knows how to wield the knife. 'You make up facts faster than you talk,' Mitt jabbed. Then, after the Arkansan responded to a question about whether he'd raised taxes by saying he had 'raised jobs,' Mitt nailed him again: 'That's political-speak.'" (Jonathan Martin, "A Prepared Mitt Is Out Of The Gates Strong," Politico, http://www.politico.com/blogs/, Posted 1/6/08)

American Spectator's Quin Hillyer: "Romney does a great job responding saying the old truth that you don't help the wage earner by attacking the wage payer. Explains his point well." (Quin Hillyer, "Next Round," American Spectator Blog, http://www.spectator.org/, Posted 1/6/08)

National Review's Mark Hemingway: "...Luntz's focus group on Fox. They loved him [Romney]." (Mark Hemingway, "Romney Just Blew The Roof Off," National Review's The Corner, http://corner.nationalreview.com, Posted 1/6/08)

National Review's Mark Levin: "I agree with the Fox focus group in that Romney was great." (Mark Levin, "I Will Second That," National Review's The Corner, http://corner.nationalreview.com/, Posted 1/6/08)

So, DID Romney win "immunity?"

We'll have to wait until Tuesday night to find out, but he certainly has given it his best shot.

Kevin

The "Survivor" Alliance of Rudy, Huckabee & McCain

I'm sure many of you have watched the reality TV show Survivor. The one thing I really dislike about that series, is the strongest player almost never makes it until the end and wins. The concept of "may the best person win," rarely happens on Survivor. Why? Because the way the voting works on the show creates a dynamic where the weaker players are forced to ally themselves together to vote out the strongest player. After the tribes merge, the strongest player has a big X on his back, and becomes the target of the weaker players. If you've seen the show, you know exactly what I'm talking about, and you'll also understand how this same dynamic is playing out currently in the Republican primary.

Who is the strong player everyone is ganging up on? Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney had big leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and it was starting to look like he was going to take it all. No other single "player" was competitive in ALL of the early states, only Romney, so no one dared take him on one-on-one, so they formed an alliance.

Rudy was a no show in the early states, McCain, looking old and tired, was sinking in the national polls and in Iowa, and Huckabee was a no-show in New Hampshire and the other states where they didn't have a strong Evangelical Christian base. Romney was the ONLY candidate in a position to win the first few states. So, what did these weaker players do? The same thing the weaker players on Survivor do, they formed an alliance to take out the strongest player, giving them a chance.

An alliance formed between Rudy, Huckabee and McCain. Rudy needed Huckabee to take Romeny out in Iowa and McCain to take Romney out in New Hampshire. So, these three weaker candidates started gaining up on Romney. If you watched the Republican debate tonight, it was very clear who everyone was gunning for.

Once in a great while, the strong player on Survivor is able to win enough "immunity challenges" to actually make it to the end. It's very rare, but happens occasionally. If Romney can win in New Hampshire, he will have foiled the Rudy/McCain/Huckabee alliance's strategy. If he can't, just as is usually the case with Survivor, a less capable player will win the crown. (After the alliance takes out Romney, they then need to turn on themselves, fighting over which of these three now gets to take the lead if Romney is out. My guess is it will be McCain, leaving Rudy and Huckabee with the short end of their alliance.)

The real loser, however, should this happen, is the Republican party. The winner? The Democrats, who will have a field day with Huckabee, and stand a greater chance against the weaker, "grumpy old man" McCain or Rudy.

If you ever jump into Survivor in the middle of the season, having missed the first few episodes, and you want to know who the strongest player is, just look for the one everyone else is trying to take out of the game. You don't see any alliances to take out Rudy, McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, or Paul, because none of them really fears any of the others, because they all have weaknesses that can be exploited. Romney is the one candidate that is strong enough it will take an alliance to take him out. For the sake of the Republican party, I hope this doesn't happen, and the strongest player stays in the game to take on the Democrats.

Kevin

PS: Something worth watching about Mike Huckabee by Glen Beck, who was recovering from surgery:



I also wanted to comment on this ad by John McCain...



The facts are:

• McCain never specifically went after the "bridge to nowhere," in fact, he was absent for key votes on its funding.
  
  
• McCain never proposed cutting the bear study and actually voted for the final bill containing it.
  
  
• McCain wasn't present for the most important votes on the Woodstock museum, including one on an amendment he co-sponsored to kill the earmark and divert some of the funds.

If you're going to go after these pork projects, you need to be there to vote against them.

Kevin