Thursday, March 10, 2011

My Fourth Annual American Idol Predictions - Season 10 - 2011


As some of you know, each year I make my predictions for who I think will win American Idol and in what order I think the contestants will be voted off. I also invite others to post their predictions in the comments below or email them to me. We then score our predictions each week as contestants are voted off. (Here were the predictions and score results for previous years: 2010 - 2009 - 2008)

Normally I set my predictions after the first performance night of the Top 12, but since this season they had 13 in the top group, I decided to do it before the Top 12 perform, since we all got to see them perform last week.

Here are my predictions for this year. As always, I'm not saying these are my PERSONAL favorites, but just how I think America will end up voting. (Casey, Pia, and Thia are my personal favs.) To hear how each of these artists sounds, you can click their photos and sample 90 seconds of their songs from last week via iTunes.

My predictions are:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Click to sample their performances last week.
#1 is my predicted winner, and #12 my
prediction as first to be voted off.

As with previous years, email me with YOUR predictions or post them as a comment to this thread, and we'll use the same point system used in previous years to see who is winning at the end of each week and how we all did by the end of the season. Don't worry if you miss sending me your predictions before they start voting people off this week, as the point system takes into account when you jumped in with your predictions with a penalty for jumping in late. (You can see the details of how the scoring works below.)

To make it easy to email or post your predictions, here are the contestant's names in text form, so you can easily cut, paste and move them around in the order you predict.

Casey Abrams
Naima Adedapo
Lauren Alaina
James Durbin
Stefano Langone
Jacob Lusk
Scotty McCreery
Paul McDonald
Thia Megia
Haley Reinhart
Karen Rodriguez
Pia Toscano

Let's see who has the golden ears and can spot what America likes.

Kevin

SCORING POINT SYSTEM: Every week, you get 1 point for every number off you were for where someone would be voted off. For example, if you predict Casey will make it to #2, but he gets voted off #4, then you get 2 points. If you guess it smack on, you get no points. Like Golf, the LOWEST SCORE WINS.

BONUS POINTS: Top Three Bonus: You get to deduct 1 bonus point for each of the top three contestants you correctly guessed. Top Two Bonus: You get to deduct 3 bonus points if you guessed the Top 2 correctly. Winner Bonus: You get to deduct 5 bonus points if you predict the winner. (This is new this year, so think hard on your top 3!)

PENALTY POINTS FOR LATE ENTRANTS: All predictions must be in BEFORE the performances this Wednesday night (March 16th). If you're predictions come in after that time, you are penalized 4 points OR the maximum points anyone else was off for the first round (when they vote off #12), whichever is higher. If you miss the first two rounds, you are penalized 8 points OR the maximum points anyone else was off for the second round (when they vote off #11), whichever is higher. No more entries after the first two rounds and we are down to 10 contestants.


42 comments:

Diona said...

My predictions are (from the winner down):

Casey Abrams
Scotty McCreery
Pia Toscano
James Durbin
Jacob Lusk
Thia Megia
Haley Reinhart
Lauren Alaina
Stefano Langone
Karen Rodriguez
Paul McDonald
Naima Adedapo

Diona

Spinfusor said...

1. Casey Abrams
2. James Durbin
3. Scotty McCreery
4. Lauren Alaina
5. Thia Megia
6. Haley Reinhart
7. Pia Toscano
8. Jacob Lusk
9. Stefano Langone
10. Paul McDonald
11. Karen Rodriguez
12. Naima Adedapo

I am much less confident in my predictions this season than in the last few. I made a lot of last-minute changes, so hopefully I didn't screw up too badly.

Kevin said...

Top to bottom - I'm with "Spin" that this is a tough one. Maybe we can "re-jigger" our choices halfway! ;-)

Pia Toscano
Casey Abrams
Scotty McCreery
James Durbin
Naima Adedapo
Lauren Alaina
Haley Reinhart
Karen Rodriguez
Jacob Lusk
Thia Megia
Paul McDonald
Stefano Langone

Megan said...

Here are mine:

1. Pia
2. James
3. Casey
4. Scotty
5. Lauren
6. Jacob
7. Paul
8. Thia
9. Stefano
10. Haley
11. Karen
12. Naima

Megan

Spinfusor said...

Karen got sent home!

The scores after round one:
Kevin C.- 1
Spinfusor- 1
Diona- 2
Kevin L.- 4

Kevin Carmony said...

Megan got her prediction in before the results. So, the scores after round one, including Megan, are:

Kevin C: 1
Spinfusor: 1
Megan: 1
Diona: 2
Kevin L: 4


Remember, lowest score wins.

Spinfusor said...

Sorry for missing Megan's comment (it wasn't posted when I loaded the page).

I love Motown music, so last night's episode was my favorite of the season. Jacob and James stole the show. I'm very disappointed in Casey (for all the talk of growling before he performed, he sure growled a lot). I don't think that he'll make it to first place.

Kevin Carmony said...

Yes, James and Jacob hit their sweet spots last night. I agree Casey was a bit of a let down. He needs to start shacking things up and surprise us each week more, as does Pia (but i stand by her). I'm still feeling pretty good about my predictions.

Please oh please let Naima go tonight. Not just because that would be best for my prediction score, but I'm not sure I can handle watching her one more week. :)

Spinfusor said...

It's good that Casey didn't get sent home last night; we would have been well on our way to the worst scores ever:
Kevin C.: 9
Megan: 9
Spinfusor: 11
Diona: 12
Kevin L.: 13

The scores from the last two years:
1. Karla: 25 (with 3 penalty points)
2. Kevin L.: 27 (with 1 penalty point)
3. Megan: 29 (with 1 penalty point)
3. Spinfusor: 29 (with 1 penalty point)
5. Kevin C.: 32
6. Talechia: 42

1. Whitney: 11 (with 1 penalty point)
2. Kevin C.: 12
2. Malinda: 12 (with 4 penalty points)
4. Karla: 13 (with 3 penalty points)
5. Spinfusor: 14
6. Talechia: 16
7. Chad O.: 18
8. Kevin L.: 24

Are we going to count the first person sent home next week as no. 11?

Kevin Carmony said...

Yes, last night was a real shocker.

Yes, who ever is announced as being voted off first next Thursday will be #11 and the other one #10, unless they announce something that says otherwise (that the lowest votes was announced second, vs first).

Thank goodness for "the save!" =)

Spinfusor said...

Naima and Thia got sent home!

Both got voted off at the same time (Paul was declared safe), so how should this week be scored?

If they are both counted as being 10th place, our scores would be:
Megan: 5
Kevin C.: 6
Diona: 8
Spinfusor: 8
Kevin L.: 9

Kevin Carmony said...

Yes, since we don't know the order, that's as good a way as any.

Kevin

Kevin Carmony said...

Actually, now that I think about it, at some point we'll perhaps learn the order, since they only take the top 10 on tour, so they will have to either take only 9, or take 11, or let us know.

Spinfusor said...

Ryan said last week that all 11 were going on tour (and that it was preplanned in case the 11th place contestant was saved).

I was writing a paper Wednesday night, so I completely missed the show. How'd everyone do?

Kevin Carmony said...

The stand outs, to me anyway, were Casey (nice comeback from last week with a more "calm" rendition of Your Song, without all the growling),
Pia (another balled, but remained solid), the judges loved Haley, but it was just average for me, and I think the best performance of the night was Lauren with Candle in the Wind. Paul and Naima were really bad, IMHO.

Kevin

Kevin Carmony said...

You can sample 90 minutes of each on iTunes for free. I think Casey's is worth buying, as is Pia's for the Rock Mofia production. If you like country, you'll like Laura'sCandle in the Wind.

I think the duet Laura and Scotty did last night was great. They need to get that on iTunes.

Spinfusor said...

I thought that tonight's episode was pretty good. Scotty and Paul surprised me. Scotty can sing something other than country, and Paul was actually good! Their performances were my favorites of the night.

Kevin Carmony said...

I remain confident in my picks. I think Stephano or Paul will be gone tomorrow. We'll see!

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

Pia got sent home!

The scores after round four:
Spinfusor: 10
Megan: 13
Diona: 14
Kevin C.: 14
Kevin L.: 17

This was a good round for me: I only got two points.

Kevin Carmony said...

I'm in shock. Intrade had Pia #1 as well.

I think they need to change how they do the voting. Instead of voting who to keep each week, they should have you vote who you want off. This would prevent what happened tonight and the other night with Casey. Either that or give the judges more saves. That was insane. No way is Stephano and others better than Pia.

Kevin Carmony said...

I think this is the biggest shock ever in American Idol. Doughty was a big shock a few years ago, but he went out #4 at least. You watch. This will be big news tomorrow.

Kevin said...

Yeah, wow - what a complete jaw-dropper. So unfair. She may not have been the #1 Idol based on performance-ability, but that's something she was growing into. Her voice was magic. The judges were completely stunned.

Agree on the "vote off" concept, 2 saves for the judges, or let Stefano take the high road and give up his seat to Pia. ;-)

KLR

Spinfusor said...

I think Pia's problem was that she's not the most exciting performer and doesn't appeal to any demographic in particular. I still expected her to do a little better, though.

You're right about the media coverage: her elimination has been all over the news today.

Kevin Carmony said...

Here were the five theories as to why Pia was voted off.

I firmly believe it was #3...Presumptive Winner Syndrome

Spinfusor said...

I thought that last night's episode was pretty good. I liked that they brought some musicians out on stage with the contestants. I miss having the band behind the singer. I find it a little odd that this was "movie song week" and the criteria was "any song that's been used in a movie," as opposed to "a song written for a movie..." No performance really stands out to me besides James's.

Casey really pissed me off. He added unnecessary "-ah"s and growly "mmm"s to the end of almost every sentence. I agree with his decision to sing that song-ahh, over the mentors' suggestion-ahh, but the way he sang it made me cringe-ahh. Speaking of the mentors, I hope William won't be around for the rest of the season.

I don't think either girl should or will go home this week (though the judges were harsh on Haley, so maybe).

Spinfusor said...

Paul got sent home! Vote for the Worst could only keep him going for so long...

The scores after round five:
Spinfusor: 12
Megan: 14
Kevin C.: 16
Diona: 17
Kevin L.: 20

I thought that Casey and Haley had the best performance tonight. It was unbelievable!

Spinfusor said...

Stefano got sent home!

The scores after round six:
Spinfusor: 14
Megan: 16
Kevin C.: 18
Diona: 19
Kevin L.: 25

Kevin Carmony said...

Casey goes home.  He was the top pick for Spinfusor and Diona.  

The scores after round seven:
Spinfusor: 19
Megan: 19
Kevin C.: 21
Diona: 24
Kevin L.: 29

Spinfusor said...

Thanks for doing the scores this week. I fell asleep right after Idol ended. I actually have a chance at winning this year!

If I had to guess now, I'd pick Scotty and James for the final two. I'm less sure of who will win, but I'm going to say James (I think that the fans of others will vote for him more than Scotty).

Kevin Carmony said...

I agree that James and Scotty will likely be the final two, and yes, hard to say who will take the top slot. James continues to surprise each week, so Scotty needs to step it up and surprise us as well.

Kevin said...

I thought Haley's performance was pretty strong last night (on both songs - sorry Randy!), but agree that it'll be James and Scotty in the finals. When Lauren or Haley goes home, he gets ALL their votes.

Kevin

Kevin Carmony said...

I agree that Haley is getting better each week and really did well on her last song last night. Jacob I thought was really off and should be going home tonight. I actually thought James was only so so last night (sorry, NO ONE sings that song like Harry Nilsson), but yes, it will be James and Scotty duking it out in the finals, with the edge going to Scotty I think. America loves their country music. :)

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

Jacob got sent home!

The scores after round eight:
Megan: 20
Kevin C.: 22
Spinfusor: 22
Diona: 24
Kevin L.: 33

My four-week run in first place has ended!

Kevin Carmony said...

Because Pia and Casey are out, no one will be able to qualify for either the Top Two or Winner Bonus Points. Spinfusor could get two Bonus Points for the Top Three, but the rest of us could only get a max of one Bonus Point there, so that could make a difference in the end.

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

I forgot all about the bonus points.

Simon and Paula are getting back together for The X Factor!

Kevin Carmony said...

I have tickets for tonight's X Factor studio audience tapping in LA.

Spinfusor said...

James got sent home last night!

The scores after round nine:
Kevin C.: 22
Megan: 22
Diona: 24
Spinfusor: 24
Kevin L.: 33

I didn't expect that at all! Only Megan and I got any points this round (two each).

Blogger is finally working again!

Kevin Carmony said...

After figuring in the Top 3 Bonus Points, it looks like this:

Kevin C.: 21
Megan: 22
Diona: 23
Spinfusor: 23
Kevin L.: 32

Everyone got to deduct one bonus point for having Scotty in the Top 3, except for Megan, who didn't have any of the Top 3 correct.

That will be it for the bonus points, as none of us are in a position to get any of the Top 2 or Winner points.

Kevin

Kevin Carmony said...

OK, so I did the math on all of our scores for all six of the remaining possible outcomes. There are only two possible rankings that can happen, depending on if Scotty gets voted off next week or not.

If Scotty does NOT get voted off next, then the final scores will look like this:

Spinfuros: 30 (tie for the win)
Kevin C.: 30 (tie for the win)
Diona: 34
Megan: 35
Kevin L.: 42

However, if Scotty does get voted off next, then the final scores will look like this:

Spinfuros: 30 (winner)
Kevin C.: 32
Megan: 35
Diona: 36
Kevin L.: 42

Go Scotty! =)

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

Haley got sent home!

The scores after round ten:
Kevin C.: 26
Spinfusor: 26
Diona: 27
Megan: 29
Kevin L.: 36

I'm going to tie with Kevin C. for first place (my previous best was third; Kevin's previous best was second). Only one more round left!

Spinfusor said...

Scotty won season 10!

The final scores:
1. Kevin C.: 30
1. Spinfusor: 30
3. Diona: 34
4. Megan: 35
5. Kevin L.: 42

I'm happy to finally be in first place, even if I have to share it! ;-P See you all again next year!

The scores from the last two years for comparison:
2010:
1. Karla: 25 (with 3 penalty points)
2. Kevin L.: 27 (with 1 penalty point)
3. Megan: 29 (with 1 penalty point)
3. Spinfusor: 29 (with 1 penalty point)
5. Kevin C.: 32
6. Talechia: 42

2009:
1. Whitney: 11 (with 1 penalty point)
2. Kevin C.: 12
2. Malinda: 12 (with 4 penalty points)
4. Karla: 13 (with 3 penalty points)
5. Spinfusor: 14
6. Talechia: 16
7. Chad O.: 18
8. Kevin L.: 24

Kevin Carmony said...

Happy to be sharing the top spot with you Spinfusor, especially after my poor performance last year. =)

Thanks to those who played!

I'm likely going to be doing this for X factor as well, so check back then!

Kevin