Wednesday, March 18, 2009

My Second Annual American Idol Predictions - Season 8 - 2009




Each year I make my predictions for who I think will win American Idol and in what order I think the contestants will be voted off. (My predictions for last year.)

Here are my predictions for this year. As always, I'm not saying these are my PERSONAL favorites, but just how I think America will end up voting.

My predictions are:

#1...

#2...
#3...
#4...
#5...
#6...
#7...
#8...
#9...
#10...

Let me know your predictions, and come back and see how we did.

Kevin

PS: Here are the contestant's names in text form, so you can easily cut, paste and move them around in the order you predict, if you want to post or email me with your predictions.

Adam Lambert
Allison Iraheta
Anoop Desai
Danny Gokey
Kris Allen
Lil Rounds
Matt Giraud
Megan Joy
Michael Sarver
Scott MacIntyre

40 comments:

Karla said...

Here is my order of preference in order (not how I think America will vote)

Love, would totally buy:
Matt Giraud (I heart Matt)
Allison Iraheta

I would maybe buy, depending on their songs:
Adam Lambert
Alexis Grace

Need more info, can't decide how much i like them:
Danny Gokey -> MJ performance was killer
Kris Allen

Sing well but will forget all about them after the show is over:
Anoop Desai
Lil Rounds
Michael Sarver

Need to go away, quickly:
Megan Joy
Scott MacIntyre

Kevin said...

Good! I was hoping you'd reprise this... Well... we know Alexis already is out, so I'll leave her off my list.

My take on America's top picks in order (same rules - not the way I ordered it - hey... "Ring of Fire" was an amazing performance!):

Matt Giraud
Danny Gokey
Megan Joy
Adam Lambert
Allison Iraheta
Kris Allen
Lil Rounds
Anoop Desai
Michael Sarver
Scott MacIntyre

Chad O. said...

You're way off. Here's how it will play out...

Adam Lambert
Danny Gokey
Matt Giraud
Lil Rounds
Kris Allen
Allison Iraheta
Alexis Grace
Scott MacIntyre
Megan Joy
Anoop Desai
Michael Sarver

Chad

Talechia said...

Here's mine... :)

Adam Lambert
Allison Iraheta
Danny Gokey
Alexis Grace
Matt Giraud
Kris Allen
Lil Rounds
Megan Joy
Anoop Desai
Michael Sarver
Scott MacIntyre

Talechia

Kevin Carmony said...

OK, so we'll use a scoring system to see who would make the best A&R person. =)

We'll exclude Alexis, since some of you entered your predictions after she was gone. So, we'll go with everyone's rankings for the 10 down.

Every week, you get 1 point for every number off you were for where someone would be voted off. For example, if you predicted Adam would make it to #2, but he gets voted off #4, then you get 2 points. If you guess it smack on, you get no points.

Like Golf, the LOWEST SCORE WINS.

Game on! Anyone else who wants to play, post your entries before PERFORMANCES next week.

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

I suck at this, but here it goes:

10. Scott
9. Michael
8. Anoop
7. Megan
6. Lil
5. Adam
4. Allison
3. Danny
2. Matt
1. Kris

Spinfusor said...

Here are the scores after round one:
Kevin Carmony: 0
Kevin No. 2: 1
Chad O.: 0
Talechia: 1
Spinfusor: 1

Whitney said...

10. Michael Sarver (obviously)
9. Scott MacIntyre
8. Megan Joy
7. Lil Rounds
6. Anoop Desai
5. Allison Iraheta
4. Kris Allen
3. Matt Giraud
2. Adam Lambert
1. Danny Gokey

Spinfusor said...

Here are the scores after round two:
Kevin Carmony: 0
Kevin No. 2: 7
Chad O.: 1
Talechia: 3
Spinfusor: 3

Top 9 Only
Whitney: 1

Kevin Carmony said...

I won't start gloating just yet. =)

Kevin

Karla said...

Here's my "refreshed" list, I know it doesn't count anymore but I don't get how America votes anyway :-P.

Matt Giraud (I still have a crush on Matt)
Adam Lambert
Danny Gokey
Kris Allen
Allison Iraheta
Lil Rounds
Anoop Desai
Scott MacIntyre

Kevin Carmony said...

Well, we could do it this way.

We'll penalize Whitney 1 point, for having missed round 1. We'll penalize you Karla 3 pts. for having missed the first two rounds.

So, the scores will now look like this:

Kevin Carmony: 0
Chad O: 1
Whitney: 2
Talechia: 3
Spinfusor: 3
Karla: 3
Kevin L: 7

I bet Kevin L wishes he had just passed on the first two rounds right about now too. =)

Kevin

Kevin said...

Yeah, this is a big 'ol OUCH for me... Guess I'm not an A&R candidate! Next 2 off are: Anoop & Scott M.

Spinfusor said...

Kevin Carmony: 0
Chad O: 2
Whitney: 3 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)
Karla: 3 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)
Talechia: 5
Spinfusor: 5
Kevin L.: 9

Malinda said...

I know I'm jumping in late, so feel free to give me penalty points going forward, but my predictions for the remaining 7 are:

1. Adam
2. Danny
3. Allison
4. Kris
5. Matt
6. Lil
7. Anoop

Malinda

Kevin Carmony said...

OK Malinda, we'll start you off in the middle of the pack with 4 penalty points. So, that would make it...

Kevin Carmony: 0
Chad O: 2
Whitney: 3 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)
Karla: 3 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)
Malinda 4 (w/ 4 pt. penalty)
Talechia: 5
Spinfusor: 5
Kevin L.: 9

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

I think the judges (at least Simon, because he doesn't think Matt Giraud has any chance of winning) used the save purely because they wanted to use it sometime during the season (this was the second to last elimination they could use it in).

I almost got four points; this would have been my worst round.

Kevin Carmony said...

Yes, so no change in score this week. Hopefully next week they let us know which of the two who will be eliminated got the LOWEST votes, so we can calculate scores properly.

I'm glad they saved Matt! There are a few others that should go before he does. I think the Judges made the right call.

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

I hope Allison and Kris are in the final two. I can't stand Anoop, Adam, or Danny, and I don't think Matt and Lil are good enough.

No one this season stands out to me like Melinda did in season 6.

Spinfusor said...

Here are the scores after round five:
Kevin Carmony: 1
Karla: 4 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)Whitney: 4 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)Malinda: 5 (w/ 4 pt penalty)Spinfusor: 7
Talechia: 7
Chad O.: 8
Kevin L.: 12

I didn't hear any mention of who had the lowest number of votes, so I calculated the scores with both Lil Rounds (who left first) and Anoop Desai placing 6th. The judges' save was announced before any of us cast our votes, so I think scoring this way is fine. Ultimately, it's up to Kevin.

Below are the scores with Lil placing 7th:
Kevin Carmony: 0
Whitney: 3 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)Karla: 5 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)Malinda: 6 (w/ 4 pt penalty)Spinfusor: 8
Talechia: 8
Chad O.: 9
Kevin L.: 11

john said...

well look like KC may have it this year...

I still don't get Adam but if the KC list hold true he will be out next week... oh wikipedia does say next week is Jazz... should be interesting 2 songs each.

Kevin Carmony said...

Seemed pretty clear, based on how they took Lil out early that she got the lowest votes and was technically eliminated first, as #7 and then Anoop at #6.

My perfect score remains in tact, thanks to the wise save last week of Matt by the judges. =)

Here are the current standings:

Kevin Carmony: 0
Whitney: 3 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)
Karla: 5 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)
Malinda: 6 (w/ 4 pt penalty)
Spinfusor: 8
Talechia: 8
Chad O.: 9
Kevin L.: 11

I am, however, a little worried about my prediction for Adam next week. Hopefully he'll do another dreadful version of a Johnny Cash song. =)

Kevin

john said...

I don't know what to think about Adam. Actually, i think he scares me and he might be able to take the cake.
I think that Randy hits it on the head with the rock opera bit. and that is what is so scary... I don't know if i like what he does to all the song but he nails the heck out of most of them and the only real dud was rig of fire. KC you think like an a/r guy how well would Adam's stuff sell... and here is what hit me after watching the dvr of last nights show. do you think a tribute band type tour of queen with Adam healing would work after he fills his touring obligation for clive?

Kevin Carmony said...

Look how much Adam has changed since the show started. If Adam did what HE wanted to do (singing like Geddy Lee and Robert Plant), he'd be voted out where I have him, about #5. However, he's a smart guy and has figured out what he has to change to win. I don't think he'll win it, however, as he will slip somewhere with one of the risks he's taking. We'll see.

If I WERE an A/R guy, I'd sign Kris. As I say each year when I publish my predictions in my blog, the list I give is NOT who I'd sign, or who I like best, but just how I think AMERICA will vote. I still feel pretty comfortable with my predictions. Adam will perhaps last a little longer, and Matt will probably go a little earlier. Otherwise, I wouldn't change too much.

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

Here are the scores after round six:
Kevin Carmony: 2
Whitney: 5 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)Malinda: 6 (w/ 4 pt. penalty)Karla: 9 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)Talechia: 9
Spinfusor: 11
Chad O.: 12
Kevin L.: 15

This is the first round Kevin got some points! I wasn't sure he ever would.

Kevin Carmony said...

Yes, I finally got some points, but it was also a lot closer than most everyone else would have guessed, seeing Adam in the bottom two. Most everyone thought I was nuts for not having Adam in the top two, or winning it even, but looks like I know America's tastes after all. You'll also notice who the top two were last night. ;-)

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

It will be very interesting to see how the remaining rounds play out. My two biggest mistakes were how high I put Matt Giraud and Anoop Desai.

In my last two results posts, every line that has italicized text isn't getting a line break added automatically. The text appears fine in the preview, but it gets screwed up once I submit it.

I'll add the line breaks manually next time.

Anonymous said...

My predictions for the final four are...
1. Adam Lambert
2. Allison Iraheta
3. Kris Allen
4. Danny Gokey

Spinfusor said...

Here are the scores after round seven:
Kevin Carmony: 4
Whitney: 6 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)
Malinda: 7 (w/ 4 pt. penalty)
Karla: 10 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)
Spinfusor: 11
Talechia: 11
Chad O.: 14
Kevin L.: 16

Spinfusor said...

I made an error in my previous scoring for Chad O., which gave him two extra points. The correct scores are below.
Kevin Carmony: 4
Whitney: 6 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)
Malinda: 7 (w/ 4 pt. penalty)
Karla: 10 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)
Spinfusor: 11
Talechia: 11
Chad O.: 12
Kevin L.: 16

Kevin Carmony said...

I hate seeing Allison go. I find her much more entertaining (and genuine) than Adam Ant. =)

I remain confident Adam will NOT win.

Kevin

Kevin said...

Crap - I wish Allison would not have been voted off. Now it's an all-boys club. She KILLED tonight on the reprise of "Cry Baby."

Kris or Gokey needed to go tonight...they sucked on Tuesday.

Danny's next to go... Since I'm dead last in the contest, I can say anything I want! ;-)

Spinfusor said...

I'm waiting for someone to create a Danny Gokey / Howard Dean mashup.

Kevin Carmony said...

What about Danny Gokey & Robert Downey Jr.? Check out:

http://tinyurl.com/gokeyjr2

They even SOUND alike! Check out:

http://tinyurl.com/gokeyjr

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

Here are the scores after round eight:
Kevin Carmony: 6
Malinda: 8 (w/ 4 pt. penalty)
Whitney: 8 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)
Karla: 10 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)
Spinfusor: 11
Talechia: 11
Chad O.: 13
Kevin L.: 17

I'm the only one who picked Kris Allen to win. Chad O., Talechia, and Malinda picked Adam Lambert.

I'm thrilled that Danny Gokey is gone, but I'd be equally happy if Adam Lambert left. Last night when Adam started singing "One," I thought that he might actually be able to get through a song without doing his obnoxious screaming. Of course he then threw it into a song where it didn't belong (not that it belongs in any song).

Apparently all of the judges were given the opportunity to work with the contestant they picked the song for, which only Simon took advantage of (explaining why Simon criticized Kara for slamming Kris's performance last night).

Speaking of the judges, Kara is my least favorite. She's a waste of time (Idol has run over more times and for longer than any previous season), never has anything interesting to say, and maybe I'm wrong, but she strikes me as a stuck-up bitch. Too bad she's coming back next season (according to Simon Cowell's interview on Ellen).

Kevin Carmony said...

Well, my main man Danny is gone, further eroding away at my big early lead.

Since my #1 and #2 picks are already out, regardless of the outcome next week, I'm picking up 6 points. I also know there is no way I can win it this year. Best I can hope for is if Kris wins, I tie for 2nd place with Malinda. (If Adam wins, I take 3rd.)

Here is how the results will come in...

If Adam Wins:

Malinda: 10
Whitney: 11
Kevin Carmony: 12
Karla: 13
Talechia: 15
Spinfusor: 16
Chad O.: 16
Kevin L.: 24

If Kris Wins:

Whitney: 11
Kevin Carmony: 12
Malinda: 12
Karla: 13
Spinfusor: 14
Talechia: 17
Chad O.: 18
Kevin L.: 24

Kris is going to be our next American Idol. Here's why I say that:

1) I've always said Adam can't win this, and I stand by that (and am still taking lunch bets). 2) Last night Ryan said that they had over 80 million votes, and less than one million votes separated the top two vote getters. This means that Adam and Kris were within 1.2% of each other. My prediction is that the vast majority of Danny fans will move to Kris, not Adam. So, even if Adam was in the lead over Kris by 1.2% last night (which we don't know if he even was), I believe with Danny gone, the tide turns strongly to Kris.

At least I'll win some lunch bets from all you Adam lovers if Kris wins. Go Kris! =)

Kevin

Spinfusor said...

Kris Allen won!

Here are the scores after the final round:
1. Whitney: 11 (w/ 1 pt. penalty)
2. Kevin Carmony: 12
2. Malinda: 12 (w/ 4 pt. penalty)
4. Karla: 13 (w/ 3 pt. penalty)
5. Spinfusor: 14
6. Talechia: 16
7. Chad O.: 18
8. Kevin L.: 24

There's a discrepancy between the score you calculated for Talechia and the score I calculated (see my next comment).

I'm happy Kris Allen won. I thought he was a much better singer than Adam Lambert (who screamed too much). It was a pretty good season finale. I loved the look on Simon's face when Katrina Darrell (bikini girl) came out.

I thought the Black Eyed Peas and Cindi Lauper were horrible (none of them can sing well). The worst part of the night, by far, was the commercial for the movie with the secret agent guinea pigs.

Kevin Carmony said...

Spinfusor,

Thanks for helping with the tally's all season (and helping me with my math =). I had to always be really careful every Wednesday to not look at my emails to approve your posts until AFTER I had seen the results here on the West Coast. =)

Kevin

Kevin Carmony said...

Well, Kris Allen won, or, perhaps more importantly (and as I predicted ;-), Adam Lambert did NOT win. Several of you owe me lunch. I look forward to you all paying up. =) For those of you who took my lunch bet from out of state, Flemings gift certificates will suffice. =)

Congrats to Whitney for winning!

I predict both Adam and Kris will have solid careers in music. As I mentioned earlier, there were only two songs I purchased all season long from iTunes. "Mad World" by Adam and "Ain't No Sunshine" by Kris. As you know, Adam and Kris ended up in the finals and these were the two songs each chose to sing last night. =)

I said from the beginning that if I were to choose which of the Top 10 I would want to sign to a record deal, it was Kris Allen. I always thought he was the total package (young, good looking, plays instruments, good voice, etc.). I think Adam should join Queen and tour, record new records, etc. I'd actually go see him in that capacity (otherwise, he's just too big of a screamer for my personal tastes.)

Thanks to those of you who played along. See you all again next season with more predictions.

Kevin

Kevin said...

Well done on the "predictions" competition, KC. I'll take it much more seriously next year. LOL.

I maintain that while Kris is talented in a Jason Mraz sort of way, I'll buy Adam's record first (but hey, I like rock n' roll). I'd also go to his concert first. I think he's much more charismatic and can sing a wider range of songs.

Now... as for an intimate concert at your place, Kris and Emily and Jayson (Haws) would be AWESOME! ;-)

Cheers and thanks again for the annual "predictions" contest. KLR