Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Deja Vu - Mitt Romney Leads in Delegates, Wins, Votes & Money Raised

Mitt Romney won big in Florida last night. I'm happy about that, but not celebrating just yet, and here's why...

Below is a chart I put together that shows the situation currently, following tonight's Florida results.

Romney leads in delegates, wins, votes and money raised.
(Click to enlarge)

As you can see, Romney leads in Delegates, Wins, Votes and Money Raised. Looks pretty promising for Romney, no? Thing is, I made this same chart three years ago, in the 2008 Republican Primaries, and Mitt Romney was in an equally great spot this early on. In fact, after SIX states he was leading in all these same areas but McCain went on to win the nomination.

Here is the chart I made in 2008:

(Click to enlarge.)

See the similarities? They're amazingly stark.

Newt Gingrich has vowed to fight on, and being the historian that he is, why wouldn't he? He knows that if McCain could pull out form behing after 6 states, why can't he after only four?

I do believe there are a few differences this time around than in 2008, so I'm still encouraged that Romney will win. The first difference...in 2008 it was Romney and Huckabee splitting the vote to oppose the "next in line" (McCain), and that split vote is what ended up foiling Romney's chances. This time, however, Romney is the seeming next in line and it's Gingrich and Santorum splitting up the vote. I also believe Gringrich is much less liked than was McCain. Another difference, is Florida is included in the early states this time, and Romney won there, big. Lastly, the calendar for the next several states leans very favorably for Romney.

For these reasons, I still believe Romney will not only be the Republican Nominee, but will also go on to beat Barack Obama for the Presidency. But then again, I was saying the same thing in 2008. Time for all the Romney supporters to step it up and not start celebrating or backing off!